With all the complexities surrounding Visa and Mastercard’s respective entries into the Canadian market, it’s easy to understand why the country’s merchants are bewildered. Just wait until we begin to hear from the cardholders.

As it stands today, Canadian cardholders have developed well-traveled behavior paths as they’ve learned how to navigate around the limitations of their existing payment system – namely the inability to use their Interac-powered cards for online purchases due to the cards’ PIN entry requirement.

With Visa and Mastercard’s promise to soon deliver a debit card well-suited to both e-commerce and ATM use, Canadians will soon have choices. But will they take advantage of them? Learned behavior, habit, status quo – these are powerful forces that may prove quite challenging for Visa and Mastercard to overcome.

Add to the introduction of a debit option the migration the country is making to chip-and-PIN plastic – another disruption for Canadian cardholders – and you have what could be the makings of a perfect frustration storm – the kind that encourages overwhelmed cardholders to turn to good old-fashioned cash.

Alas, cardholder behavior is only one of the many challenges facing Visa and Mastercard in Canada. There’s merchant support (or lack thereof), issuer acceptance, Interac’s response, and of course, government regulation.

I liken the transformation of the Canadian payments system to a puzzle. We’re sure the pieces will all fit together in the end. It’s the picture the puzzle will ultimately reveal that’s up in the air.